Epidemiologist Li Jue: “Dynamic clearing” is the anti-epidemic strategy with the lowest comprehensive social cost

Faced with the “epidemic” exam, Shanghai has always unswervingly implemented the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, and made every effort to promote social clearing of the epidemic Zero attack.

“To fight against unique and cunning opponents, we must take the initiative to attack!” Li Jue, an epidemiologist and professor of Tongji University School of Medicine, bluntly said in an interview with this reporter that the Omicron variant spreads fast , strong infectious power, and my country’s large population base, at this stage once “lying flat”, medical resources will face a serious run, resulting in more patients unable to receive timely treatment. “To avoid irreversible consequences for the entire society, we must adhere to the ‘dynamic clearing’ without hesitation.”

In terms of the characteristics of the virus itself, the new coronavirus is constantly evolving and iterating. From the original original strain in 2020, to the later variant strains such as Delta and Lambda, and now Omicron has also been updated to the second generation. “The BA.2 branch of the Omicron variant strain has an R0 value of 9.5 for the transmission intensity, which means that one person can transmit 10 people, and in early 2020, the R0 value of the original strain was between 2.5-3. It can be seen that , the current transmission power is almost 3-5 times that of the early days.” Li Jue said.

Summarizing the global anti-epidemic model, Li Jue believes that it can be roughly divided into three types: one is the so-called “flattening” anti-epidemic chosen by most Western countries; the other is the “three defenses” represented by Singapore. “principle, that is, “prevent symptoms, prevent severe illness, and prevent death”; the third is the general policy of people-oriented “dynamic clearing” that our country has always adhered to.

“‘Dynamic reset’ is an anti-epidemic strategy with the lowest comprehensive social cost based on my country’s actual national conditions.” Li Jue analyzed that my country’s population base is large and the distribution of medical resources is relatively unbalanced. The vaccination rate of the new crown vaccine for susceptible groups such as the old and the young is lower than the average level of the entire population. If the social face is not maintained, the virus will break out in a large area in a short period of time, and it will inevitably pay a huge life and economic cost.

At present, Shanghai has been carrying out community control for a period of time, but the number of new positive infections every day is still high, why is this? In Li Jue’s view, this is in line with the laws of epidemiology.

Infectious disease epidemiology has such a developmental law: initial period—rapid growth period—slow growth period—plateau period—decline period. Analyzing the data of new positive infections in Shanghai in recent days, Li Jue believes that the city is currently in a plateau, and there will indeed be certain fluctuations. “The virus has an incubation period, and screening data also has a certain delay, but as long as we insist on ‘dynamic clearing’ Don’t waver, the data will definitely come down.”

Recently, Li Jue is busy doing on-site interviews in various communities. After reviewing the recent investigation results, he also reminded the public that group shopping must be carefully disinfected, and try to avoid group purchases when it is not necessary; communities with positive infections should be disinfected in a timely manner.

At present, the city is focusing on key points, zoning and grading, implementing nucleic acid screening as the main method, supplemented by antigen screening, and implementing full-staff testing and screening for personnel in the closed control area, control area, and prevention area. , and will dynamically adjust the delineation of the “three zones” based on the results of periodic screening, and strive to achieve the goal of social clearance in the shortest possible time.

“Manage the ‘three districts’ well, strive to reduce the number of infected people in the closed and controlled areas, and prevent the prevention area from rebounding, so that the risks can be basically controlled.” Li Jue said that the dawn is in sight. , please insist and firmly believe that dynamic clearing will be realized as soon as possible.

Author: Li Chenyan