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span> Author: Xiang Dongliang, Source: Basic Common Sense (ID: GetCommonSense)
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In response to the strong concerns of the society about whether the new crown vaccine will cause leukemia, the State Council Epidemic Press Conference released some of the data. Wang Fusheng, Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Fifth Medical Center, PLA General Hospital, introduced:
In 2018 and 2019, before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the proportion of hospitalizations due to leukemia in my country was 0.15% and 0.14%, respectively %, and in 2020 and 2021 after the outbreak, the proportion of hospitalizations was 0.13%.
Well, the expert introduced the proportion of leukemia, and it seems that there is basically no change. What is the specific number? In fact, it can be inferred based on proportional data. I checked the “Statistical Bulletin of my country’s Health and Wellness Development” on the Chinese government website in recent years, and obtained data on the total number of hospitalizations (times) in the country every year. According to calculations:
From 2018 to 2021, the number of hospitalizations for leukemia patients in my country was 381,800, 372,300, and 299,200, respectively. , 321,400.
In other words, after the epidemic, the number of hospitalizations for leukemia patients not only did not increase, but instead decreased significantly. Among them, in 2020, there are more than 70,000 people less than in 2019, a decrease of 19.63%, and in 2021, there are more than 50,000 people less than before the epidemic, a decrease of 13.67%. (Note: Since the published proportion data is only accurate to 2 decimal places, the calculation result may have a slight error with the actual data, which does not affect the trend)
The trend of this data change has aroused my strong curiosity. What is the reason? It’s impossible that vaccination against the new crown also prevented the occurrence of leukemia…
It seems that we have to analyze the data more carefully. Find out the hidden reason. So I checked these bulletins carefully and found a set of data that shocked me even more:
In 2020, the national The number of hospital admissions in medical and health institutions was 230.13 million, a decrease of 35.83 million (down 13.5%) from 2019.
In 2021, the number of hospital admissions will rebound slightly, reaching 247.26 million, but still 18.7 million less than in 2019 people.
As we all know, with the growing aging population in China, More and more people are becoming more and more aware of seeing a doctor when they are sick. The investment in hospital construction is increasing year by year, and the number of people who need outpatient or hospitalization every year will be more and more. There must be something wrong with the decline in hospital admissions.
Many people, including me, may have first thought that they must be affected by the epidemic. But we can’t draw a conclusion out of thin air, and we still have to do a careful analysis based on the evidence.
First consider whether it is a medical resource issue
From the data in the communique, we can see that the number of medical staff and the number of hospital beds in my country have been growing steadily in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 4 to 5 points. The number of medical staff is also increasing, basically adding more than 500,000 every year.
In other words, my country’s health resources are getting more and more More, more and more, in general, the decline in hospital admissions is not because the hospital can not live.
Consider the structure of the visit
If it is not a problem of insufficient medical resources, is it possible that the proportion of patients visiting a doctor has changed? For example, some patients who should have been hospitalized for fear of being unsafe in hospital changed to outpatient treatment?
It can be seen from the data that this is not the reason. Because in 2020 and 2021, the overall admissions of medical institutions across the country also showed the same downward trend compared to before the epidemic:
The whole 2020 In 2019, the number of people seeing a doctor nationwide was 7.74 billion, a decrease of almost 1 billion from 8.72 billion in 2019. In 2021, the number has recovered slightly, but it is still 300 million lower than in 2019.
In other words, the decrease in inpatients did not correspond to the outpatient The increase in patients, as outpatients also decreased substantially. In addition, it is not because the patients who are inconvenient to be hospitalized in 2020 are postponed to be hospitalized in 2021, because the total amount of diagnosis and treatment in 2021 will not blow out due to the backlog of the whole year, but it will be less than before the epidemic.
In short, it is not a change in the structure of medical visits, nor a delay in the time of medical visits, or a decrease in the number of people who see a doctor.
Is it possible that the number of sick people in the whole society has decreased in the past two years?
I think this is possible. Wearing masks, hygienic, and less movement will definitely reduce the incidence of some epidemics, but There is no way that reducing 1 billion illnesses a year is so exaggerated.
Excluding all the above possibilities, there is only one real reason left: span>
In 2020, more than 45 million patients across the country who should have been hospitalized were not admitted to the hospital for this reason. In 2021, more than 38 million patients across the country who should have been hospitalized were not admitted to the hospital for this reason. (Note: The above two data are estimated by the public account of basic common sense, which has included a natural increase of about 10 million per year)
Think about this set of data when we discuss[cost].
Source of statistical data:
2018 Statistical Bulletin of my country’s Health Development span>
my country in 2019 Statistical Bulletin of Health Development
< p>2020 Statistical Bulletin of my country’s Health Development
2021 Statistical Bulletin of my country’s Health Development
Author | Xiang Dongliang. The article is reproduced from the basic common sense of WeChat public account (ID: GetCommonSense).
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