In the early morning of March 24th, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, published a long article on Weibo: “The new crown is not that scary, but the battle is difficult to fight.” The current situation is analyzed and interpreted, and the main points are as follows.
1. Shanghai is a super-large international city. Faced with the attack of the Omicron strain, which is dominated by asymptomatic infection, it was initially found that the number of cases increased exponentially after infection. , it is very difficult to control.
If you want to keep the city from shutting down, you need to make constant strategic adjustments under the support of data. The current strategies are: rolling screening, focusing on key points, and cutting off the chain of transmission.
The big data of screening tells us that a positive sign has quietly appeared: the proportion of rolling screening cases in non-controlled areas is gradually decreasing, accounting for only 10% of the total cases. It indicates that the social epidemic is gradually under control.Although the inflection point of the epidemic has not yet appeared, the conditions for forming an inflection point have gradually been met.
2. The National Health and Medical Commission issued an update to the nucleic acid testing guidelines, emphasizing scientific accuracy, and conducting nucleic acid testing in delineated areas. The “all staff” in the second edition of the “Guide” was revised. It is an “area”, and the size of the area is determined by the needs of epidemic prevention and control.
This indicates that the anti-epidemic has gradually entered a new stage in the future. Adopting the anti-epidemic model of shutting down the whole region’s economic life and conducting multiple rounds of testing for all staff, will is gradually updated.
3. If we don’t conduct a global shutdown and full-staff testing, can we outrun Omikron?
The new guidelines of the National Health Commission require all provinces and cities (including megacities with a permanent population of more than 10 million in urban areas), regardless of population size, to complete the city-wide nucleic acid test within 24 hours. Check strength.
This requirement is very high, but it is the basic requirement to ensure that subsequent rolling screening can escape the spread of the virus. Omicron’s speed, in a sense, if we hadn’t been fast, we wouldn’t have a chance to outrun Omicron.
4. The School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong has pre-published a paper on the role of vaccines online, and the results are very important.
Hong Kong’s population of 7.3 million received a total of 12.7 million doses of vaccine. Both inactivated vaccine and BNT162b2 can prevent serious illness and death. The protection rate of severe new crown and death is 74.1%, which is not as good as BNT162b2 (88.2% effective rate).
The good news is that three doses of both vaccines provided very high rates of protection against severe illness and death, with 95% protection % or more, this data has laid the foundation for China to get out of the epidemic in the future.
5. The fight against the new crown epidemic will be a long-term process, and we can’t hold the mentality that we will kill the virus if we can’t do it. It is necessary to control the epidemic and protect the residents. life, keep the medical treatment channel unblocked, and at the same time ensure the survival of private small and micro enterprises.
These will be the focus of Shanghai’s post-pandemic fight. The fight against the virus is not over yet, but life goes on.
The following is the full text:
Information source: Zhang Wenhong’s personal Weibo