Producer | Sohu Health
Author | Zhou Yichuan
Editor | Yuan Yue
< p data-track="4">After the opening of society, the number of epidemics in the UK has repeatedly broken records. The latest data from the UK’s official statistics agency shows that 4.9 million people were infected with the new coronavirus in the week ended March 26, an increase of 600,000 from the previous week. There is no doubt that Omicron’s BA.2 variant is the culprit behind the surge.
The surge in cases comes as the UK announces the official launch of its “Live with the Virus” plan, scrapping free COVID-19 rapid tests for most people. In the face of people with high risk of virus infection and high risk of severe illness, they need to pay the corresponding test fee to know whether they are infected.
Leeds University Associate Professor of Medicine Stephen Griffin said the ‘living with the virus’ strategy, which calls for the removal of quarantines, free testing and most surveillance measures, is tantamount to ignoring the virus of development and change. More than 67% of people over 12 in the UK have received a third dose of the vaccine, and children aged 5-12 will also receive a low-dose vaccine. Vaccines are good, but they cannot be defeated with one blow. It should not be left alone to withstand the impact of the new coronavirus. Uncontrolled epidemics will ultimately endanger human health and safety.
Oxford University biology professor James Naismith said the vast majority of people in the UK, except those who were completely insensitive to the virus, would be infected with BA. “Coexistence” is actually getting everyone infected.
In the United States, CDC statistics say that the number of epidemics has stabilized substantially, and the number of new infections has recently been around 26,000. Hospitalizations are also trending down, with about 1,400 hospitalized a day. These two figures have dropped by 90% from the peak of the epidemic in January. It is worth noting that BA.2 has accounted for 72% of the new infections in the United States. Since BA.2 is 30%-80% more transmissible than BA.1, experts predict that the former will completely replace any other virus in absolute dominance within two weeks.
Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb commented that since home antigen self-test data is not reported by users in most cases, perhaps the number received by CDC is only one-seventh of the actual number , but the weakening of the virus’ virulence and the popularization of vaccines and drugs have prevented it from bringing a new round of threats in the near future. Autumn will be a critical period, when a decline in the efficiency of vaccine immunity could bring about a new wave of transmission.
So, does BA.2 really make the new coronavirus gradually milder? It is true that the death rate in the UK has fallen, but the number of deaths has not changed; the number of hospitalizations reported by the US CDC has dropped to a long-term low, but the US Department of Health and Social Services data shows that the occupancy rate of hospital beds is still above 75%, many Due to the shortage of staff and the aggravation of other patients during the peak period of the epidemic, the work pressure has not eased, and the hospital continues to be under high pressure.
Figure 1: The single-day trend of deaths from the new crown epidemic in the UK
Figure 2: The single-day death trend chart of the new crown epidemic in the United States
We can look at trends in the number of deaths in the UK and the US, which are not in the low range right now.
Figure 3: Trends in UK hospitalisations
Figure 4: Trends in mechanical ventilation in UK hospitalized patients
Figure 5: Trend chart of hospitalized patients in the United States
From the perspective of hospitalization and severe risk, the United States has seen a significant decline, while the number of hospitalizations in the United Kingdom has increased, and the number of severe cases has remained relatively stable.
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Ratios fell, but numbers didn’t. Believe that vaccines alone could drastically reduce deaths, allowing Delta to bring the peak of the outbreak in the third quarter of last year; believe Omicron’s virulence The sharp reduction has brought about another peak of the epidemic in January this year; now I once again believe that the virulence of BA.2, which is more transmissible, has been reduced again. There are only three things, and its risk of severe illness and death will really decrease. Is it the lowest?
Perhaps just as Wu Zunyou, a Chinese disease control expert, said, although the BA.2. strain has a high proportion of asymptomatic infections, due to the It spreads quickly, produces a large number of infected people in a short period of time, and the total number of deaths is still high. The number of deaths caused by the Omicron strain during the epidemic is higher than that of the Delta strain during the same period.< /p>
References:
1. foxnews
UK reaches record COVID levels; nearly 5 million infected
https://www.foxnews.com/health/uk-record-covid-levels-nearly-5-million-infected
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2. coronavirus.data.gov.uk
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
3. covid.cdc.gov
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker /#trends_dailydeaths