Author: Pineapple (founder of Pineapple Factor Public Account)
The link between smoking and lung cancer is clear. 90% of lung cancers are related to smoking, and without cigarettes, lung cancer would be a rare cancer.
But there is a question that plagues many people: How many people out of 100 who smoke will get lung cancer? How many will die from smoking?
Is it 1%, 10% or 50%?
Picture from: Zhanku Hailuo
This answer is very important, because every smoker will comfort himself with a sentence: “So-and-so has smoked for a lifetime, and lived to more than 90!” Although smoking is harmful, if smoking is harmful The proportion is very low. Is it unnecessary to persuade people to quit smoking?
Today, Pineapple will answer this question for you.
(one)
The effects of smoking and smoking cessation on lung cancer incidence are the most studied in Europe, and several papers have come to similar conclusions.
In 2004, the famous British Journal of Cancer published a classic paper[1], detailing the lung cancer mortality rates of men in different groups in the UK and other European countries. How is the result? Just look at the picture below.
Image credit: Pineapple Factor
Summary of several articles, several conclusions are very clear:
Non-smokers have a 0.3 percent chance of dying from lung cancer at age 75, compared to an average of 16 percent for long-term smokers, more than 50 times the chance.
If you smoke more than 5 cigarettes per day, you have a 25% chance of dying from lung cancer at age 75.
The sooner you quit smoking, the better. Quitting smoking around the age of 30 has a less than 2% chance of dying from lung cancer, and even if you quit smoking at the age of 50, the chance is less than 6%.
So, to answer the first question: How many people will die of lung cancer if they smoke all their lives?
The answer is 1 in 6 smokers will die of lung cancer before the age of 75. If the group is narrowed down to those who smoke more than 5 cigarettes per day, then 4 1 person will die of lung cancer.
Therefore, it is normal that many smokers do not die of lung cancer.
To put it bluntly, betting on whether you will get lung cancer from smoking is like playing Russian roulette with one, or two, bullets in six holes. It’s true that a lot of people don’t get shot, but do you dare pull the trigger?
I keep promoting quit smoking because I see tragedies like the one below almost every day.
Image credit: Pineapple Factor
I don’t know what to say other than “Alas…”.
Quitting smoking is difficult, but all people with lung cancer have successfully quit.
Unfortunately, this is usually too late.
(two)
If you are not afraid of the 16%~25% chance of lung cancer, should you just smoke?
Of course not!
Becauselung cancer is only a small part of the cause of death from smoking.
U.S. studies have found that less than one-third of the causes of smoking deaths are due to lung cancer, which is as high as lung cancer, as well as cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, stroke, etc. , in addition to lung diseases, especially chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
Image source: Pineapple Factor
Rough conversion.
I just said that people who smoke a lot have a 25% chance of dying from lung cancer caused by smoking. At this rate, these individuals would have a 28% chance of dying from cardiovascular disease, 18% from lung disease, 7% from other cancers caused by smoking, and 9% from other diseases caused by smoking.
Add up, 25+28+18+7+9=87%!
Cigarettes have been dubbed “the most murderous drug in human history,” not just for nothing.
This is the probability of being 75 years old, what about earlier, say 65?
Image source: Zhanku Hailuo
Looking up the data, there is a 35% chance that smokers will die of various diseases caused by smoking at the age of 65. In other words, although the average life expectancy is now approaching 80 years old, one-third of people who smoke for a lifetime will not live to be 65 years old.
Smoking reduces life by an average of 12 years! Senior smokers help the society save a lot of medical insurance, and they can be regarded as living Lei Feng.
Remember:
If you smoke for a lifetime, there are many lucky people who don’t get lung cancer, but very few people can survive it!
Everyone with lung cancer has quit smoking, but you don’t have to wait until that day!
Image source: Zhanku Hailuo
References:
[1] The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men. Br J Cancer. 2004 Oct 4; 91(7): 1280C1286.
[2] High Cumulative Risk of Lung Cancer Death among Smokers and Nonsmokers in Central and Eastern Europe. Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Dec 15;164(12):1233-41.
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