The COVID-19 pandemic has infected nearly 500 million people globally< /strong>, and resulted in more than 6.2 million deaths.

The latest round of outbreaks is due to Caused by the Omicron(Omicron) mutant, which was first discovered in South Africa on November 11, 2021. At present, Omicron has spread to most countries and regions in the world. The rapid spread of Omicron has attracted great attention from all over the world. Compared with before, the outbreak of Omicron is much larger. In just a few months, it quickly replaced Delta as the current major epidemic strain.

Then the COVID-19 pandemic caused by Omicron will How will it develop and when will it end?

Recently, Lanzhou The team of Academician Huang Jianping of the University published a review article entitled: Is omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 coming to an end? in The Innovation, a journal of Cell.

From Globally, Omicron has led to a sharp rise in new cases of COVID-19 around January 2022. The role of seasonality in the spread of the coronavirus has been widely discussed, with some studies suggesting that the spread of COVID-19 follows a seasonal trend, accelerating its spread when cold weather arrives. However, it cannot be concluded that seasonality is the decisive factor, and social interventions should also be considered.

The high transmission rate of Omicron has accelerated the spread of the epidemic. Data shows that after the emergence of Omicron, the highest daily number of new cases in the world is more than double the previous record.

Although Omicron has shown unprecedented global spread, but it caused a lower case fatality rate than any previous mutant.

With the advent and mass dissemination of Omicron, There are two different perspectives on the future development of the COVID-19 pandemic:

One view is that the emergence of Omicron may be a signal that the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end. An article published by The Lancet in January this year argued that the transmissibility of the new coronavirus will reach a low level in March 2022, and that experience in protecting vulnerable groups and distributing vaccines will reduce the negative impact of new coronary pneumonia in the future . Additionally, Omicron’s low case fatality rate means that even if COVID-19 returns, the global pandemic will be over.

But another view is that COVID The -19 pandemic will not end anytime soon. Because the supply of vaccines in developed, developing and underdeveloped countries does not match, and some countries and regions are slow to promote vaccines. In addition, new mutants may emerge in the future, and mutants like Omicron will re-emerge, leading to a resurgence of COVID-19.

Used by Huang Jianping’s team Global COVID-19 Prediction System (GPCP) and an improved SEIR model to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The model is based on the following assumptions:

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1, the total population should always be equal to the susceptible population (S), exposed population (E), protected population (P), infected population (I), isolated population (Q), dead population (D) and recovered population (R );

2. The total population of each region remains unchanged;

3. The new crown is only spread from person to person;

4. All people have the same immunity.

The model uses real epidemics data to make relevant predictions, therefore, the prediction results can reflect the real development of the current COVID 19 pandemic.

Huang Jianping’s team Projections suggest that Omicron will continue to impact the world this year, with the COVID-19 pandemic not ending until the end of 2023 (around November 2023). As shown in the graph below, we can observe that the current pandemic is on a downward trend, with daily new cases having decreased from over 4 million in January to around 2 million now.

The blue curve represents the predicted trend of the COVID-19 pandemic, we can See, the general trend continues to decline, except for a small increase in April 2022 due to seasonal factors, after which the daily number of new confirmed cases will decline rapidly. Projections show that by November 2023, the number of daily COVID-19 cases globally will drop to around 3,000. At this point, the pandemic can be considered over.

It is predicted that by the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in November 2023, the total number of confirmed cases worldwide will reach at least 750 million.

The research team also noted that despite the predicted results of a pandemic It will end in November 2023, but this is a projection based on current developments in the pandemic. If mutant strains that are more likely to spread follow, the predictions will be adjusted accordingly.

The timing of the end of the pandemic varies by country Not the same, the forecast results show that United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy these severely affected countries, in 2022 There will be a sharp decline after April 2019, and their pandemic appears to be over within the year. In countries such as South Korea and Vietnam, the pandemic will continue into next year. This also reminds us that we cannot predict whether COVID-19 will end just based on the development of the epidemic in some countries.

While the Covid-19 vaccine has been successfully rolled out in some countries and large populations have so far been fully vaccinated, that does not mean we are safe and immune to Covid-19. In fact, the vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing Omicron infection has declined significantly.

Huang Jianping’s team Predictions were also made for the new crown epidemic in mainland China and Hong Kong, China, where outbreaks occurred in March 2022. But compared with other countries, the new crown epidemic in mainland China is much smaller, and it is likely to be contained around April 2022.

Research The team also pointed out that the main reason for the low number of confirmed cases in mainland China is the implementation of strict restrictions. Therefore, until a more effective vaccine is developed, we should still comply with epidemic prevention requirements, wear medical masks, and limit large gatherings to slow the spread of the new crown epidemic and end the spread of Omicron.