The review and analysis of the epidemic over the past two years is to further enhance the ability of human beings to deal with the next crisis.
Writing | Jun Ling
Source | “Medical Community” Public Account
On February 7, 2022, the bells of the Washington National Cathedral rang, and the 12-ton bell was struck 900 times for 90 minutes to mourn the 900,000 people affected by the new crown epidemic. deceased.
A week before the big bell struck, U.S. COVID-19 deaths hit their fifth peak in two years. But since then, the number of new infections and deaths in the United States has begun to decline. By March 6, the 7-day dynamic daily average number of new confirmed cases in the United States was 42,204, and the 7-day dynamic average daily death toll was 1,259.
“This is a landmark moment.” On March 7, Kaiser Health News published an article stating, “The new crown epidemic has entered its third stage. At the beginning of the year, we need to recapture the damage done by the virus and further curb its uncertain progress.”
Coronavirus on the ‘killer list’
Caesars Health News says coronavirus infection has soared up the rankings of the disease’s ‘killer list’ as never before.
Quoting the data on the death toll of major diseases in the United States in 2020, it has only taken 9 months since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States at the end of February 2020, and the total death toll of the new crown pneumonia in the United States in 2020 is Among the major diseases, it ranked the top three with 350,831 cases, second only to heart disease (696,962 cases) and cancer (602,350 cases).
Top 10 U.S. disease deaths in 2020
A virus appears to cause massive infections and deaths so quickly? The last time something like this happened was HIV. According to the US CDC document Leading Causes of Death, 1900-1998, AIDS was among the top 10 causes of death in the United States for six consecutive years from 1990 to 1996, but even then, it never surpassed No. 8.
The aging population is one of the big reasons. According to statistics, the proportion of people over the age of 65 in the United States is about 16.3% in 2020. Due to weaker immune systems and underlying health problems, the elderly are often more susceptible to diseases and even death than young people.
This is especially true for COVID-19 infections. Dr. Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, explained that many other viruses are not so regular in the age distribution of infection, but COVID-19 is particularly prominent in terms of age dependence.
According to the US CDC data, as of February 12, 2022, among the nearly 1 million deaths from new coronary pneumonia in the United States, people over the age of 65 accounted for nearly 680,000 cases. For comparison, 14 There were only 562 deaths in the under-age population.
U.S. COVID-19 deaths by age
The good news is that older Americans are the most likely to be vaccinated, representing a scenario in which a large number of older adults died early in the pandemic, according to William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University. will cease to exist.
Deaths of older Americans were especially common early in the pandemic due to the close contact of seniors living in nursing homes with each other. However, starting in February 2021, the vaccination rate of seniors over 65 in the United States has begun to climb, and the full-course vaccination rate of seniors over 75 is currently close to 90%.
From February 2021, the total number of weekly deaths in the U.S. over the age of 75 will drop sharply based on the number of deaths by date. Although it has rebounded twice since then under the influence of factors such as mutants and relevant policy fluctuations, it has not returned to the previous “peak” level.
In fact, the recent outbreak in Hong Kong has brought the issue of vaccination of the elderly to the fore again.An important reason for the recent high death toll in Hong Kong.
U.S. vaccination rates by age group over time
U.S. trends in COVID-19 deaths by age group
But aside from the relative increase and decrease of the epidemic, from the absolute epidemic data of the entire population in the United States, whether it is the current average daily death toll or the case fatality rate of new coronavirus infection, both Not too low.
A large part of the reason is that the overall COVID-19 vaccination rate in the United States is lower than in many developed countries that are gradually opening up. According to Our World In Data data, the current full-dose COVID-19 vaccination rate in the United States is only 65.4%, compared with 81.3% in Denmark, 73.3% in the United Kingdom, 77.7% in France, and 78.6% in Belgium.
There are many other factors at play. For example, in terms of the high death toll and case fatality rate, a “characteristic national condition” of the United States: the ultra-high obesity rate and the prevalence of diabetes have also played a significant role. A large proportion of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in the United States have problems with obesity or diabetes.
Dr. Schaffner laments that while the pandemic has peaks and troughs due to seasonal factors and the emergence of new variants, the coronavirus has persisted at a relatively steady rate since the outbreak began two years ago cause death.
“There will always be another wave”
How is the United States doing in the fight against the epidemic?
“Kaiser Health News” believes that “there are good and bad”, but in the world, based on the original economic and medical strength of the United States, the “record” is not ideal .
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the mortality rate higher than the United States is mainly in middle-sized, middle-income countries. Western industrialized countries that are more similar to the United States are faring better than the United States, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Canada.
Among the developed countries in Asia and Oceania, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand fared better. In its analysis of Asian countries, Kaiser Health News further pointed out that part of the reason is that these countries have relatively rich experience in dealing with airborne diseases, and the public’s acceptance of wearing masks is also high.
Vaccination rates by country around the world (as of February 16, 2022)
The United States is a typical multi-ethnic and multi-ethnic country, and the degree of “independence” between states is also relatively high in terms of policies and cultures. This difference is also reflected in epidemic prevention and control. .
For example, Asian-Americans are the best performers in terms of infection numbers, hospitalization rates, and death rates. As mentioned above, this may be related to the more cautious self-protection of the Asian population.
Whites are close behind, and blacks, while similar to whites, have much higher hospitalization and death rates. In addition, Alaska Natives, American Indians and Hispanics are also more severely affected.
Infection, hospitalization, and death rates by color in the United States
Kaiser Health News believes that the coronavirus has hit Americans of color harder, likely stemming from differences in income, geography, medical access and education.
The death toll also varies by state in the United States. As of February 16, 2022, for every 10,000 people, there were 391 deaths in Mississippi and 83 in Vermont, a difference of nearly 5 times.
The Kaiser Health News analysis found that the seven states with the highest death rates include densely populated New Jersey and Arizona, and the other five are southern states: Mississippi, Alabama, Lewis Ana, Tennessee and West Virginia are among the 11 states with the lowest median education and income in the United States. Studies have shown that disease and prevention are more closely related to educational background than income.
Death rate by US state
In addition, epidemic prevention and control is also partly related to politics. The 20 states with the highest vaccination rates are all blue states.
Vaccination rates by state in the United States
Professor William Schaffner argues that, in general, countries that outperform the United States tend to have ongoing, single-source, science-based communications. They communicated well with their people, explaining and justifying the various preventive measures they took.
Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, hopes that vaccination will become an effort to advance the common good, independent of other factors.
Professor William Schaffner concluded that hurricanes, tornadoes, these disasters are in the past. But unlike local natural disasters, for the new coronavirus, or viruses, there will always be the next wave of epidemics that will even affect the entire world.
The review and analysis of the epidemic for more than two years is to further improve the ability of human beings to deal with the next crisis. Professor William Schaffner said it was the constant analysis and reflection of these factors that contributed to the development and governance of our public health system.
References:
1.Charts Paint a Grim Picture 2 Years Into the Coronavirus Pandemic, https://khn.org/news/article/charts-paint-a-grim-picture-2- years-into-the-coronavirus-pandemic
Source: Medicine
Editor in charge: Jun Ling
Proofreading: Zang Hengjia
Plate making: Xue Jiao