From April 22 to now, the epidemic in Beijing has exceeded 1,500 people. Especially since yesterday, 17 of the 94 newly infected people in 24 hours were screened out by social screening. In a month, the situation has not only not improved, but has become more and more severe, which has never been seen before.
Beijing’s anti-epidemic efforts are really hard to say. They have done a great job. Whether it is in terms of information release, data authenticity, or precise control and strict measures, it is worthy of a thumbs up. But why is the epidemic still uncontrollable after a month, and there is no turning point?
Yesterday morning, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, was in the seventh session of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association. There was a speech at the academic conference on disease prevention and control, which was covered by many media. After reading this statement, it is thought-provoking.
In the opinion of the top three, there are two core points of Zhang Wenhong’s speech:< /p>
One is that the speed of Omicron’s transmission has surpassed that of chickenpox among existing infectious diseases. Omicron has a basic The reproduction number (R0), which means that one person can infect 9.5 people. When the R0 value is equal to 9.5, this wave of epidemics is basically uncontrollable in the world. So when Omicron appeared in South Africa, the world basically believed that this was a very difficult to control wave of epidemics.
The other is that the inflammatory response to the host caused by Omicron is indeed a little less severe than that of influenza, but Its inflammatory response is still more severe in vulnerable populations. This means that Omicron will induce a certain degree of inflammatory response, but the degree is weaker than that of influenza. If the patient is older and the underlying disease is more severe, this inflammatory response may be fatal.
Zhang Wenhong’s two views made the top three think some realistic concerns.
First of all, Beijing’s response to this wave of the epidemic is based on a precise anti-epidemic model. The dynamic clearing has also expanded the scale of detection and tracking to a certain extent, and I can personally feel that Beijing has done its best. However, due to the R0 value of Omicron 9.5, not only has the dawn not seen for a month, but the situation has become more and more severe, which makes people have to worry. If the current style of play cannot be cleared, should we Adults work from home, students study from home, barber shops, banks, restaurants, etc. have been closed all the time? Or is Beijing going a step further and shutting down the city silently? In addition to the current road and the road of silent closure of the city, including the road of lying flat and coexisting that we have abandoned, are there other paths we can take, are there new plans, and are there any plans? This is what I care about the most, and I am more worried about.
In addition, about the mortality rate. Judging from Zhang Wenhong’s speech, Omicron’s mortality rate is comparable to that of influenza, and even the inflammatory response is weaker than that of influenza.
Does this mean that Omicron is equivalent to the flu? The top three think of course not. Because first, the high transmission power of Omicron is not comparable to influenza. Once it spreads, all people in the country will be infected with Omicron and a small number of people will be infected with influenza are two completely different situations and concepts.
Second, our treatments for Omicron are far less mature than those for influenza efficient. From the point of view of therapeutic drugs alone, there are not only many drugs available for the treatment of influenza, but also outstanding efficacy and safety, not to mention vaccines, which are very mature. What about Omicron? The real effective medicine has not yet been born, and the urgently developed vaccine has almost lost its preventive effect, especially the medicine that is suitable for daily use at home, and the medicine that everyone has at their fingertips and can cut off the disease. Although we have traditional Chinese medicine, most of them are decoctions for one person and one side in the fight against the epidemic. There are too few universal ready-made medicines, and there are no new medicines, which is not conducive to large-scale promotion and popularization.
Third, today we are all focusing on Omicron, but it is not the last variant, the next Whether the mutation direction is good or bad, no one can predict. In addition, the sequelae are still unknown, especially for immunocompromised children and the elderly with underlying diseases.
Based on the above, dynamic clearing is the established anti-epidemic path in China, but how to operate in reality, I hope Beijing can find a new way to eliminate everyone’s worries and anxieties.
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