to explore the transition from pandemic to normal Possibility, Yu Hongjie’s team developed a mathematical model that simulates the spread of the new coronavirus, and corrected it according to the initial stage of the development of the Shanghai Omicron epidemic in 2022, so as to cancel the dynamic reset policy. The post-COVID-19 disease burden was predicted.
The data shows that if China is “completely flat” in epidemic prevention, it will enter the “Undefended”, China is expected to face heavy losses. Over 112 million people are expected to be infected, 5.1 million to be hospitalized, 2.7 million to be admitted to intensive care units, and nearly 1.6 million to die. About three-quarters of the deaths will be among unvaccinated people over 60 years old.
span>Note: The research team assumed a baseline scenario in which the population was vaccinated with booster shots, but without stricter non-drug interventions (NPIs) such as mass nucleic acid testing and travel restrictions, and without the use of anti-coronavirus drugs.
Researchers believe that the following three measures will affect the prevention and control of the epidemic:< strong>1. Vaccination, especially for the elderly over 60 years old; 2. Antiviral treatment; 3. Non-drug interventions, including closing schools and workplaces, etc.
According to WHO assessment, January 2020From the 1st to December 31st, 2021, the number of “excess deaths” directly or indirectly caused by the COVID-19epidemic was about 14.9 million, almost all countries officially reported to WHO 3 times the stats.
China is a country with a large population, a large elderly population, unbalanced regional development, and insufficient medical resources. Through the research of Yu Hongjie’s team, it can be seen that if the “dynamic clearing” policy is not adhered to, the number of deaths will be even more shocking.
As the well-known media person Hu Xijin said, “What China does, we need to study and decide by ourselves.” “Zero” is an anti-epidemic system and a humanitarian value. It cannot be wrong in the general direction. The important thing is that we continue to implement it well and continue to explore more efficient supplementary methods according to the new situation.”
“Dynamic reset” focuses on the present and cares for the future.
Virologist Wang Linfa: Omicron Should be called SARS-3
May 10, Reputed Journal The homepage of the Science website publishes a report titled New versions of Omicron are masters of immune evasion, which mainly introduces three new Omicron subtypes: New versions of Omicron are masters of immune evasion strong>BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5.
In this article, Wang Linfa, an expert on emerging infectious diseases (virologist, Australian Institute of Technology, Science and Engineering) Academician, Director of the Institute of Emerging Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS School of Medicine) proposed that according to the immunological characteristics of the Omicron strain, it is suggested to define it as SARS-CoV-3, namely A completely different virus from SARS-CoV-2.
ScienceMagazineSenior editor Jon Cohen agreed, saying Omicron is a completely new virus from a serological point of view. The core of traditional vaccine design technology is based on the neutralization ability of virus antibodies, but so far, the guidance provided by genotyping methods is dwarfed.
The race between humans and the new coronavirus is getting more and more intense. For ordinary people, all we can do is get vaccinated as soon as possible and insist on wearing masks.
This “battle” against the new coronavirus is a protracted one, and vigilance cannot be relaxed at all.
Editor in Charge｜Alyosha Cover Image Source｜Visual China