I have calculated the current death toll of new crown infected people from both sides and the death toll in Shanghai in 2021. In 2021, the permanent population of Shanghai (including the population with household registration and non-household registration) will total 25 million The number of all-cause deaths in the population is 139,000, and the average daily death toll is 381. This number includes the number of diseases, trauma, car accidents and other abnormal deaths. Some people say that your number is wrong, how can it be so small , this figure is publicly available, you can check it, and last year, the number of deaths nationwide was 10.41 million, and there were 283 prefecture-level cities across the country. The average number of deaths in each city was about 37,000. Shanghai has a large urban population, but medical care The conditions are good, and the number of deaths is more than four times the average, which is a relatively accurate number.
According to the proportion of the population, if 25 million people are divided into 50 and 500,000 people and averaged, it can be calculated that the daily number of deaths per 500,000 people is 7.62, and we now The number of deaths among these 500,000 infected people is nearly 50, which is 6.6 times that of 2021. Or in reverse, 500,000 people die. If they give up the fight against the epidemic and lay flat, and all 25 million people are infected with the new crown, they will die. What is the number of people? 2,500 people, which is 6.6 times the average daily death toll in Shanghai in 2021. Some people say that these 500,000 people are infected with the new crown because of their low immunity. There is no comparison. This conclusion has no basis. Many infected people are alive and kicking. The proportions of young people and the normal population of all age groups are consistent, and they are not necessarily immunocompromised.
The epidemic situation in Shanghai has turned cloudy and cloudy. The number of cases found in the society has dropped to less than 200. The social order is about to be cleared, and the resumption of work and production is gradually restarting, which means that there is no epidemic that cannot be overcome. , the closure and control of the epidemic are temporary. If the number of deaths is high, everyone will be spoiled by the virus, and they will not be able to go to work. At that time, it will be really difficult to take it back, and the social economy may not be good. Not everyone can live a happier life, and it is hard to say whether there is a secondary disaster of the epidemic. Isn’t there an unexplained hepatitis in the West? All the sick are children, and 10% of them need liver transplantation. How can such a family have a good life? By the way, it is still uncertain whether this wave of hepatitis is an infectious disease or not. Nucleic acid tests of many cases in the UK are negative. , but did not say whether the patient had previously been infected with the new crown, and the vast majority of Israeli patients were nucleic acid positive.
