Under the most optimistic scenario, the clearing threshold can be reached in mid-to-early May.
Writing | Tian Dongliang
Source | “Medical Community” Public Account
On April 27, there were 1,292 new local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Shanghai, and 9,330 new local asymptomatic infections. Among them, 858 of the confirmed cases were previously confirmed asymptomatic infections. This is the first time since April 4 that the actual daily number of new infections in Shanghai has dropped below 10,000.
The cabin has realized “bed waiting for people”
According to the information “released by Shanghai”, among the newly infected people in Shanghai, 432 confirmed cases and 9,140 asymptomatic infections were found in isolation and control, and only 2 confirmed cases and 9,140 asymptomatic infections were found. 190 cases of asymptomatic infection were found in the investigation of relevant risk groups.
Yesterday, 27,187 people were discharged from hospital in Shanghai, and the number of people discharged from the cabin has exceeded the number of newly infected people for many consecutive days. In the comment area of the official Weibo account of the “Shanghai Release”, some netizens calculated that on April 27, 7 districts in Shanghai had achieved a social cleanup.
Chen Erzhen, head of the medical treatment team at the centralized isolation point in Shanghai and vice president of Ruijin Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, revealed in an interview with the media that there are 120 makeshift hospitals in Shanghai, with a total of 120 beds. There are about 270,000 beds, and another 50 transfer platforms with about 60,000 beds. With the decline in the number of newly infected people in Shanghai, the isolation and observation requirements of new crown infected people have basically been met, and the “bed waiting for people” has finally been realized.
However, Shanghai’s daily new deaths from new crowns have not declined significantly. On April 27, 47 new deaths were added, and the number of new deaths has remained at around 50 for four consecutive days. The total number of deaths of new crown patients in the round of epidemics has reached 285. In addition, as of 24:00 on April 27, there were 304 severe patients and 48 critically ill patients receiving treatment in designated medical institutions.
Deaths in Shanghai showed the characteristics of advanced age and combined underlying diseases, and the direct cause of death of all deaths was underlying diseases. Officials have not released whether contracting the new coronavirus accelerated the deaths of these patients. In Shanghai, the full-course vaccination rate of the new crown vaccine for the elderly over 60 years old is 62%, and the booster vaccination rate is 38%. Shanghai is actively promoting the vaccination of the new crown, focusing on the elderly.
At the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council held on the afternoon of April 28, Guo Yanhong, the supervisory commissioner of the Medical Administration and Hospital Administration of the National Health Commission, also made a statement regarding the deaths reported in Shanghai. Explaining, she said that the characteristics of the death cases also remind us that we should pay special attention to the treatment of underlying diseases while treating the new coronary pneumonia. “Judging from the recent deaths in the epidemic, the new coronary pneumonia cannot be treated as the common flu or as a big flu. The new coronary pneumonia will also bring serious consequences to the public, especially the elderly and these vulnerable groups with underlying diseases. It also seriously affects the health and life safety of the public.”
Guo Yanhong introduced that the next step will be to reduce the incidence of severe illness and death from the following aspects:
First, we should focus on identifying high-risk factors for severe illness, advance the treatment threshold, and reduce mild cases from turning into severe cases through early intervention and standardized treatment.
Secondly, the construction of designated hospitals should be strengthened, and hospitals with strong comprehensive capabilities and high level of treatment should be selected as designated hospitals. At the same time, the designated hospitals should strengthen the diagnosis and treatment capabilities of specialists, and improve the diagnosis and treatment and nursing level of basic diseases.
Third, it is necessary to actively promote multidisciplinary joint rounds, implement checklist management for critically ill patients, and implement a personalized diagnosis and treatment plan with one person, one policy.
Fourth is It is necessary to strictly implement the core medical safety management system such as the discussion of difficult cases and the discussion of death cases, improve the level of treatment, and ensure the quality of medical care.
Five is Vaccination should be emphasized, especially for the elderly, and the research and development of therapeutic drugs should also be accelerated during work.
Shanghai also announced today the number of infected children under the age of 6. In this round of the epidemic, Shanghai has reported a total of 12,707 cases of positive infections among children under the age of 6, accounting for about 2.4% of the total number of infected persons; a total of 7,480 cases have been discharged from hospitals and released from centralized medical observation. They are mainly admitted to designated hospitals such as the Municipal Public Health Clinical Center, and some asymptomatic children are also admitted to Fangcang shelter hospitals accompanied by guardians.
Optimistic estimates,
The clearing threshold can be reached in the first half of May
According to the “Science and Technology Herald” report, Meng Guoyu’s team and Wu Geng’s team of Ruijin Hospital of Shanghai Jiaotong University proposed a new mathematical model that can describe and predict the trend of the new crown epidemic. This model is used to make long-term predictions of the Shanghai epidemic, and give a “zero-clearing timetable” for Shanghai.
The research team divides the Shanghai epidemic into four stages, and believes that Shanghai is currently in the third stage, that is, from the turning point of the epidemic to the turning point -2, and the number of daily infections in this stage will drop rapidly.
The team also predicts that the daily number of new infections will drop below 1,000 by early May. But the research team also said that this is a relatively optimistic prediction. The three parameters in the model are not static, but will change with the actual situation.
The research team analyzed that the total number of infected people in this round of epidemic in Shanghai will reach nearly 800,000. It is conservatively estimated that with the gradual liberalization of the society, the epidemic in Shanghai will continue until June 8, when the daily number of new people will drop below 1,000, and the zero-clearing stage will begin. If we continue to maintain strict control, in the most optimistic case, we can reach the zero-clearing level in mid-to-early May.
Can I still travel on May Day?
Wu Liangyou, deputy director of the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press conference on the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council this afternoon that since April, a total of 553,251 local infections have been reported in mainland China , affecting all provinces except Tibet. The national epidemic situation is still dominated by large-scale epidemics in Shanghai and Jilin Province, and the number of reported infections in these two places accounts for more than 95% of the national total.
At present, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Beijing and other provinces are actively and effectively handling the epidemic. The epidemic situation in Jilin Province continues to decline. The epidemic situation in Jilin City has entered the stage of clearing positive quarantine points, and the epidemic situation in Changchun City has entered the clearing stage of closed control areas. The overall epidemic situation in Shanghai is showing a clear downward trend, and the social epidemic risk is gradually reducing. However, the prevention and control situation is still severe, and the task of preventing rebound and spillover is very arduous.
The May Day holiday is approaching, and with the epidemic spreading so widely, can you still travel during May Day? Li Xiaoyong, deputy director of the Market Management Department of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, said that he should adhere to the combination of normalized precise prevention and control and emergency response, resolutely prevent and avoid the two tendencies of “relaxing prevention and control” and “excessive prevention and control”, and make overall plans for culture and tourism. Industry epidemic prevention and control and holiday market work.
“We also remind the majority of tourists: pay close attention to the domestic epidemic situation and changes in medium and high-risk areas, do not travel to medium and high-risk areas, and understand the prevention and control policies of the departure and destination in advance. Be conscious during travel Comply with local epidemic prevention and control regulations such as wearing masks, taking body temperature, checking health codes, keeping distance from other tourists, avoiding gatherings, and avoiding eating in closed public areas such as museum exhibition halls. Use public chopsticks and spoons when eating. When coughing and sneezing , pay attention to cover it with your elbow or tissue. If you have symptoms such as a cold or fever, you should stop traveling and seek medical attention in time.”
Source: Medicine
Editor in charge: Zheng Huaju
Proofreading: Zang Hengjia