On February 26, the number of cases in Hong Kong increased by more than 26,000. As of the early morning of the 27th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong had reached 158,000. , the cumulative death toll in Hong Kong reached 485.
As the epidemic in Hong Kong heats up, as a port city close to Hong Kong, the pressure of epidemic prevention in Shenzhen increases sharply.
On February 26, Shenzhen saw an increase of 30 local infections of the new crown.
On the 27th, Shenzhen added 36 new cases of local infection.
From February 7th to 28th (early morning), the number of new positive infections in Shenzhen reached 138.
The pressure of the Hong Kong epidemic on Shenzhen’s epidemic prevention is unprecedented, the vice president of a hospital in Shenzhen said with emotion.
Hong Kong’s daily increase of 26,000 infections has not reached its peak yet?
For the skyrocketing number of infections in Hong Kong, Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told 8:00 Jianwen that this may not be caused by the “surge” of patients, “there are so many patients” , but due to the change of the official statistical strategy: the company and the government confirm the nucleic acid positive twice, and the residents can report it when they are positive for the rapid antigen.
However, even so, it is still amazing to have more than 20,000 positives in the absence of nucleic acid for all people. Leung Tsz-chao, a Hong Kong respiratory specialist and former chairman of the Infectious Disease Advisory Committee of the Hong Kong Medical Association, said that Hong Kong’s current testing capacity is about 200,000 people a day. The number of confirmed cases may be 2-3 times that number. In fact, the infection rate in Hong Kong may have reached 30%.
In the past few days, the increase has exceeded 1,000, and it has exceeded 10,000 in the past 2 days. In Hong Kong, the medical run is almost a fait accompli.
△ On February 15, Hong Kong citizens conducted nucleic acid testing (picture from Visual China)< /i>
According to the public data of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, on February 25, the hospitalization rate of medical wards in various urban areas in Hong Kong reached 90%, and the Kowloon West Caritas Hospital reached 114%.
Virology expert Chang Rongshan analyzed that due to the characteristics of the Omicron strain, most of the infected people in Hong Kong have mild symptoms. Only one in five cases requires hospitalization.
This makes hospitalization and treatment of critically ill and high-risk groups difficult. On February 26, 83 new crown patients in Hong Kong died. Liang Zichao said that this number accounts for about one-third of Hong Kong’s new crown patients and deaths, and most of the two are elderly. Lower immunity and vaccination rates among older adults are a major challenge.
“The Hong Kong nursing home cannot be effectively protected from the virus, which may be our biggest failure in the prevention and control of this epidemic.” Liang Zichao said bluntly that the outbreak of the epidemic in various nursing homes continued, “It creates a lot of stress and difficulty for our healthcare system.”
According to the “Hong Kong Economic Times” report, more than 420 nursing homes have been diagnosed, involving 1,500 elderly people and 510 employees.
Wang Guangfa, Director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, proposed that, based on the experience of treatment in the Mainland, good classification management of patients and early intervention for patients with severe symptoms can be more effective Less medical resources achieve greater patient benefit. In addition, the elderly and those with underlying diseases should also be closely observed and treated in the mild stage.
But these premise are “good social coordination and control.”
Liang Zichao believes that: the current Hong Kong epidemic “community transmission is close to a state of being out of control, and the infection rate in the community is already very high.” In this case, many have played a role in the past. measures may now be too late. In this case of late spread, even comprehensive Lock down measures may be too late to have much effect.
Chang Rongshan gave an example. For example, Hong Kong has insufficient grassroots personnel, which is incomparable with that of the mainland. However, more people can be encouraged to participate, and NGOs and various social groups can be encouraged to participate. Another example: Hong Kong should provide free test cards for more people, and encourage more infected people to self-examine in a timely manner and actively isolate themselves.
Liang Zichao believes that the population of Hong Kong is 7.5 million, with a daily increase of more than 20,000. Adding population factors, it “almost coincides with the data of the peak period in Europe and the United States.” For example, in some European countries, the population Seventy to eighty million people, and the highest daily increase in confirmed cases is about 200,000.
Therefore, he felt that the current number of confirmed diagnoses may not have reached the peak, but it should not be too far from the peak – 30% of people are infected. In the end, because the daily increase in the number of infections must follow the “normal distribution” law, when the entire number goes from peak to trough, “60% of Hong Kong’s residents may be infected with the new crown.”
As early as February 22, the epidemiology team of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong overturned their previous prediction that the fifth wave of the epidemic had a peak of 28,000 confirmed cases in a single day, and announced that they were The latest projections: In early March, the number of confirmed cases in a single day in Hong Kong may reach 183,000; by mid-May, the cumulative death toll will reach 3,206.
“permeable” Shenzhen’s epidemic prevention pressure is unprecedented
As the number of infections in Hong Kong skyrocketed, the local epidemic in Shenzhen next door was also spreading.
According to incomplete statistics, from February 7th to 28th, there were 138 new positive cases of infection in Shenzhen.
The trajectory of new cases involves Luohu, Futian, Nanshan, Longhua, Longgang, Baoan and other regions.
Affected by the epidemic, some public buses and routes in Shenzhen were suspended; some public places such as parks, bookstores, and various indoor stadiums were closed; some hospitals adjusted outpatient work…
By the evening of the 27th, multiple streets and communities had been closed for management.
The National Health and Medical Commission stated at the press conference of the State Council’s joint prevention and control mechanism on the 26th that the epidemic in Shenzhen, Guangdong has many aspects, the transmission chain is complex, and the risk of community transmission and spillover is high. .
In fact, while the current round of epidemics in Shenzhen continues to increase, the source of infection is still unclear, whether it is an independent epidemic or multiple transmission chains imported from abroad, and it is not clear.
Chang Rongshan described the Shenzhen epidemic as “permeable”.
“It may have been infiltrated from Hong Kong. There are many young people in Shenzhen, which is more prone to headless epidemics. After several generations, the source cannot be found.”
Chang Rongshan believes that the number of cases in Shenzhen will continue to increase in the future, and may reach 2 to 3 times the number of cases currently detected.
A number of virology experts said that the focus of Shenzhen’s epidemic prevention and control is to prevent imported cases. As of 24:00 on February 26, 2022, a total of 397 confirmed cases were imported from Shenzhen, including 180 in Hong Kong.
Since February 4, as of February 25, a total of 190 cross-border drivers have been tested positive at Shenzhen Port.
According to the Health Times, cross-border drivers are in principle closed-loop management, but there are also drivers who can go home and have access to people who carry goods and park. This is the risk of virus transmission.
Shenzhen and Hong Kong border crossings are not closed, but there are new regulations. According to the latest “Notice on Health Management of Guangdong-Hong Kong Cross-Border Truck Drivers”: From March 1, 2022, Guangdong-Hong Kong cross-border truck drivers (including those determined by the Mainland health and disease control department) who have tested positive for nucleic acid at the port of entry will be exempted For close contacts and sub-close contacts), from the date of confirmation, they will not be allowed to enter the country for 21 days.
People returning to Guangdong from Hong Kong need to log in to the online reservation system of “Healthy Station Room”, and the number will be released at 10 am every day.
However, there are only 800 isolation rooms per day, which means that the number of people released at the customs port is limited in one day.
But in fact, it seems that the pressure of customs clearance for passengers is slowing down. “Actually, 800 rooms are normally enough to handle. Before the Lunar New Year, there are more people who pass through customs every day, but I heard recently. It’s back to normal,” a Hong Kong reporter told Eight Points.
Considering that the epidemic situation in Hong Kong will continue at a high level for a period of time, Chang Rongshan said that Shenzhen should take precautions to pay attention to the penetration of the epidemic situation in Hong Kong, otherwise, the situation in Xi’an may occur if you are not careful.
Wei Xiaoning, Luo Chunhao, Chen Guangjing｜Writing
Li Shanshan and Xu Zhuojun｜Editors
This article was first published on the WeChat public account “Eight Points Jianwen” (ID: HealthInsight)
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