Recently, the team of Academician Huang Jianping of Lanzhou University published an article in The Innovation, a sub-journal of Cell, to predict the new crown epidemic.
Image source: The Innovation
Researchers used the Global COVID-19 Prediction System (GPCP) and an improved SEIR model to predict the development of the outbreak, which used real epidemic data.
Projections show that Omicron will continue to impact the world this year, with the COVID-19 pandemic ending by the end of 2023 (around November 2023).
As shown in the figure below, the green dot represents the actual daily new cases around the world, and the blue curve represents the predicted result. The overall trend is forecast to continue to decline, but due to seasonal factors, there will be a small increase in April 2022, after which the daily number of new confirmed cases will decline rapidly.
Image source: The Innovation
Global daily COVID-19 cases will drop to about 3,000 by November 2023, at which point the pandemic can be considered over. By the end of the pandemic, the total number of confirmed cases will reach at least 750 million.
Furthermore, using forecasts from global cases, the researchers calculated that the forecasts were about 57 percent accurate. Accuracy is highly dependent on data quality, so for countries with poor data quality, the accuracy is lower.
Planning: Cats
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Information source: The Innovation