(Health Times Li Ning)
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Conference on March 25 that the new crown pneumonia is not a “big flu.” Due to the rapid spread of the Omicron strain and the large number of infected people, the total number of deaths and social harm and impact caused by the epidemic have not been alleviated.
Zhang Hongtao, a former research associate professor of the Department of Pathology and Experimental Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, told the Health Times on March 26 that the reason behind this is that the transmission of Omicron is far greater than that of influenza, and the infection Large base.
In the early morning of March 23, the nucleic acid testing laboratory 10 in Tongji Hospital Affiliated to Tongji University The testing equipment does not stop for 24 hours, and the daily sample volume exceeds 10,000 tubes. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Ding Ting
Omicron is 3-5 times more contagious than earlier? Virus Evolution
At the press conference on the Shanghai epidemic prevention and control work held on the morning of March 25, Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai New Coronary Pneumonia Medical Treatment Expert Team, said that from the earliest outbreak in 2020 to the present , Omicron has reached the second generation, Shanghai is popular this time is BA.2, and now the strength of the spread is almost 3-5 times that of the early spread.
Zhang Wenhong calculated a simple formula at the press conference: one person can pass 10 people, and the incubation period between generations is also shortening, basically 3 days can be passed on to one generation. At first it was 1 person, after 3 days it was 10 people, and after 6 days it was 100 people. If this person has enough contact with everyone outside, it may be 1,000 people in 10 days. This is the so-called exponential rise. If no effective prevention and control measures are taken, this data will be close to at least tens of thousands in half a month from March 10 to March 25.
“The virus has also been evolving, and it will spread faster and faster than the common flu.” Zhang Hongtao, former research associate professor at the Department of Pathology and Experimental Medicine, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, said on 3 On the 26th, he told the Health Times that the strict prevention and control in the early stage has seized opportunities for the research and development of new crown vaccines and drugs, so in this case, in addition to wearing a mask, it is necessary to get vaccinated in time, which can effectively reduce the risk of infection.
Omicoron strain has high case fatality rate? In fact, the infection base is large
Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Conference on March 25 that there are studies on the relative The case fatality rate and mortality rate of the two time periods from January to January this year were compared and analyzed. The first three months were dominated by the Delta strain, and the last three months were dominated by the Omicron strain. The case fatality rate did decline during the Omicron epidemic, but the total number of deaths or fatalities due to the epidemic during the same period was higher than the number of deaths during the delta strain epidemic. This shows that the prevalence of the Omicron strain has not reduced the overall harm to a country.
“This is actually a principle that as the denominator increases, the numerator becomes larger. The fatality rate of Omicron after infection is similar to that of influenza, but because the infectivity is much higher than that of Delta and Influenza, the more the number of infected people, the corresponding increase in the number of deaths, which is reflected in the whole group, that is, the increase in the mortality rate (note: the proportion of deaths in a region in Rio Mikron to the total number of people).” Zhang Hongtao explained , in the calculation of the mortality rate, the total number of people includes those who have been infected and those who have not been infected, while in the calculation of the case fatality rate, the denominator is only the people who have been infected. Therefore, the infection rate of Omicron is higher than that of influenza, so that more people are infected, and the corresponding number of deaths is also more.
“According to a special communique issued in Hong Kong on March 20, 88.3% of the 5,435 deaths reported in Hong Kong’s fifth wave of the outbreak (Omicron) were not completed. Two doses of vaccination. Those who have been vaccinated with at least two doses of the vaccine have a fatality rate of 0.09% after infection; those who have received only one dose of the vaccine have a fatality rate of 0.7% after infection; those who have not been vaccinated have a fatality rate of 2.58%.” Zhang Hongtao For people over 80 years old, if they are not vaccinated, the fatality rate after infection with Omicron is as high as 15%.
Vaccination can greatly reduce the mortality rate, so it is still necessary to get vaccinated in time.
Finally, Zhang Hongtao reminded, don’t panic whether you are infected with the new crown virus or not, sometimes the problems caused by panic may exceed the virus itself, get vaccinated on time, do prevention and control as required, and other normal life That’s it.
