According to the Shanghai Health and Health Commission, from 0 to 24:00 on March 24, there were 29 new confirmed cases of local new coronary pneumonia and 1,580 asymptomatic infections, of which 12 confirmed cases and 1,455 asymptomatic infections were in isolation. It was found in the management and control, and the rest were found in the investigation of relevant risk groups. There were 12 new confirmed cases of imported new coronary pneumonia and 5 asymptomatic infections, all of which were found in closed-loop control.
Zhang Wenhong: The virus is spreading now
3-5 times that of the earlier period
At the press conference on Shanghai’s epidemic prevention and control work held in the morning, Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai New Coronary Pneumonia Medical Treatment Expert Team and director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital, said that he had seen in recent work that the hospital quarantined The growing number of confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections means that the now-high number of cases is putting pressure on the entire healthcare system.
Zhang Wenhong said that the new crown pneumonia virus is constantly updated and iterative. From the earliest outbreak in 2020 to the present, Omicron has reached the second generation, and the Omicron variant is popular in Shanghai this time. BA.2, the transmission strength is exactly the R0 value of 9.5, which means that one person can spread to 10 people. In early 2020, the R0 value of 1 person is about 2.5-3.
This means that the spread now is almost 3-5 times stronger than the earlier spread. At the same time, the incubation period between generations is also shortening, and it can be passed on to one generation in basically 3 days. At first, 1 person was infected, 10 people after 3 days, and 100 people after 6 days.
If this person has enough contact with everyone outside, it may spread to 1,000 people in 10 days. “This is a so-called exponential rise. If no effective prevention and control measures are taken, the data will be just half a month from March 10 to March 25, and this level should be close to the level of tens of thousands.”
< p>This ratio continues to decline
The inflection point will come soon
Zhang Wenhong said that for Omicron, in principle, all measures taken now, If you just work from home, or don’t go to school, or you don’t go to restaurants, and the R0 value cannot be controlled below 1, it must not be possible, that is, it will continue to spread, and it will continue to rise exponentially. But our nucleic acid is in place today, and we can control the R0 value to below 1.
He introduced that if the proportion of cases screened in non-sealed areas continues to decline, the inflection point will come soon.
The proportion of infected persons screened in non-controlled areas accounts for about 10%, and it is constantly decreasing. “The current level has dropped to this level, which means that if everyone sees that this level continues to decline, an inflection point will definitely occur. Here, very high requirements are put forward, which requires the cooperation of all citizens.”
Zhang Wenhong said, Shanghai is the most difficult right now. Without the help of all citizens, I personally feel that experts cannot solve the problem, and I myself can only save a few patients every day. Generally speaking, we have reached a new stage. When will the turning point come? All parties must make an effort.
Wearing a mask is a very important part of the prevention and control of Omicron
Zhang Wenhong said: Wearing a mask is a very important part of the whole process of preventing and controlling Omicron.
Today we are facing the spread of the second generation of Omicron, and the pressure of prevention and control is very high. In principle, the role of masks is very limited, but what is needed now is to accumulate all kinds of prevention and control measures, and a very important essential change will take place for Omicron to block the spread.
Zhang Xiaosong Wei Qimeng
Source: China Youth Daily