Under internal and external shocks, can China’s “grain bags” be stable?

“The people depend on food as the sky”. This year’s sudden change in the international environment has caused severe disturbances to the unstable international food prices. During the spring ploughing preparation period, the outbreak of the epidemic in the Northeast has made many people worry about domestic food security.

On the 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the agricultural production in the first quarter, giving people a “reassurance”.

Experts: Domestic grain production may increase steadily

National Bureau of Statistics press statement Ren Fu Linghui said at the meeting that in the first quarter, the total output value of the planting industry increased by 4.8%. Affected by the severe flood last autumn, the winter wheat planting period in some areas was significantly prolonged, the winter wheat planting area was stable and slightly decreased, and the seedling condition was weak. Since the spring of this year, the climate in the main winter wheat producing areas has been generally suitable, and all localities have stepped up efforts to do a good job in field management, and the seedling situation has gradually improved. At the same time, the northwest region is also actively expanding the planting area of ​​spring wheat, and the total planting area of ​​wheat is basically the same.

“It can be seen from the data that my country’s grain output is guaranteed this year.” Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Zhongxin Finance reporter that the total grain output was 1.3%. The goal of more than one trillion kilograms can be achieved, and grain output can be steadily increased.

According to the annual planting intention survey, the country’s intended planting area of ​​wheat and rice is generally stable, and the intended planting area of ​​soybean has increased more.

“Although my country’s grain output has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion kilograms for seven consecutive years, structural contradictions are still prominent. The import volume of soybeans is relatively large, and the price of some grains is still relatively high. High. If the increase in grain production this year is guaranteed, and the structure is improved, it will have a strong positive significance for better adapting to the needs of consumers and responding to fluctuations in the international market.” Li Guoxiang added.

Partial prevention and control will not have a significant impact on spring farming

Northeast China is China important granary. Recently, it is an important season for spring ploughing in Northeast China, but the epidemic prevention and control situation in Jilin and other places is still severe.

For this reason, multiple departments and places have introduced a number of measures to ensure spring grain production. For example, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set up a special class for the supply of agricultural materials, set up a hotline, and timely help solve problems such as the supply of agricultural materials, farmers leaving the fields, and agricultural machinery on the road. Twelve departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the General Supply and Marketing Cooperative have jointly established a national working mechanism for supplying and stabilizing prices of fertilizers to effectively ensure sufficient fertilizer market volume and stable prices.

In order to ensure that all the crops should be planted, Jilin Province also allocated 12.2 billion yuan in land subsidies, agricultural machinery subsidies, and grain planting subsidies from the central government, together with 3.1 billion yuan from the provincial finance. , and arrange 2 to 3 large-scale seedling farms in townships for reserve production to ensure emergency supply of seedlings.

“In the early stage, due to the epidemic prevention and control, the preparation of farmland in some areas was indeed affected to some extent. However, in the later stage, the government introduced targeted policies, which greatly reduced the adverse impact, and the impact on spring ploughing may not be affected. Obviously.” Li Guoxiang said.

Fu Linghui also revealed at the press conference that “spring ploughing and ploughing are progressing smoothly and orderly.”

The data shows that, As of April 11, the country has sown 141 million mu of grain in spring, 15% of the intended area, and the progress is 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. 58.6% of the country’s early rice has been planted, and the progress is 5.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year.

“From the perspective of the situation in the next stage, the stability of grain production is still guaranteed.” Fu Linghui said, firstly, all localities should consolidate production responsibilities at various levels to ensure stable grain production. The second is to increase the support for food production. The third is the improvement of planting efficiency. Since 2021, grain prices have risen steadily, farmers’ income from grain cultivation has increased, and their willingness to plant has increased.

“Of course, we must also see that the cost of growing grain has risen, and there are uncertainties in meteorological disasters, diseases and insect pests, etc., and we still need to do a good job in grain production to ensure food security. “Fu Linghui pointed out.

International food crisis will not impact domestic food security

Due to demand, agricultural inputs and International grain prices, which had been climbing since the second half of 2020, reached an all-time high in February 2022 amid high transportation costs and disruptions to port operations.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data shows that Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine is the fifth largest wheat exporter. They provide 19% of the world’s barley, 14% of wheat and 4% of corn, and account for more than a third of global cereal exports.

“Given that agricultural activities in these two staple commodity exporters may be disrupted, the already high and volatile international prices of food and agricultural inputs may It has seriously aggravated the global food insecurity situation.” Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, said earlier.

The impact of the current situation in Ukraine on the international grain market has already emerged. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization report released on April 8 showed that the impact of the Ukraine crisis spread across the staple food and vegetable oil markets, leading to a sharp jump in world food commodity prices to record highs in March. Among them, world wheat prices soared 19.7%. In addition, corn prices rose 19.1% month-on-month, hitting record highs along with barley and sorghum prices.

Will the international food crisis impact domestic food security?

“Because my country’s grain is imported, the international grain price will be transmitted to the country, so the overall grain price in my country is also rising. But it will not lead to a food crisis.” Li Guoxiang said.

In Li Guoxiang’s view, once my country’s grain prices rise significantly, the government will step up regulation and increase subsidies for vulnerable groups to alleviate the adverse effects of price increases.

“No matter how the international situation changes, we have the ability to ensure that the 1.4 billion Chinese people will have their meals on time every day without going hungry, and the more stable their rice bowls are, the more they can eat. Come as soon as possible.” Tang Renjian, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at the National People’s Congress this year. (Reporter Xie Yiguan)

Source: China News Network